The Assessment

OVERVIEW

Portland and its economy grew rapidly over the past decade. But key fundamentals to align institutions and support business and talent languished. Portland has failed to manage the unintended consequences of this growth.

The result is a rising cost of living, houselessness, wealth inequality and climate impacts, all aggravated by COVID-19. BIPOC communities and geographic areas of the city, including East Portland and the Central City, feel the pain most. The distribution of jobs and workers has been widening across the region. The center of economic activity has been shifting away from downtown Portland toward nearby suburbs. The city can no longer take its growth for granted.

Without intervention, Portland’s presence in the regional economy will slip further. Portland will experience widening gaps in economic wellbeing and inequitable climate-related impact. We will not achieve racial equity or climate action goals without economic growth. To be robust and durable, that growth must take a racially inclusive, climate-focused approach.

Our Strengths

Portland's accelerated growth through attraction of skilled labor enabled the economy to flourish.​

1

Economic engine of a growing regional economy

2

Strong high-wage job growth, high employment in knowledge occupations and highly educated talent with increasingly diverse workforce

3

Competitive in Green Cities, Athletic & Outdoor, Metals & Machinery, Food & Beverage Manufacturing, and Software & Media​

4

Home to a world-class airport and export infrastructure​

5

National leader in climate action and land use

6

Heart of regional tourism and cultural amenities and robust transit service​

7

Small business-rich main streets and healthy entrepreneurial ecosystem

8

Broad mix of economic development partners supporting economic growth​

Our Challenges

Portland failed to adequately tend to key fundamentals or equitably manage the consequences of this growth model. ​

1

City of Portland’s rates of business growth and employment growth lag region​

2

Employees in high-paying occupations and business owners are disproportionately white

3

Displacement threatens areas of our city where BIPOC communities reside, compounded by staggering wealth inequity; white households have 7.5 times wealth of Black households and 5.2 times Latine/x households​

4

Limited industry-specific and growth-stage programming for entrepreneurs

5

Anti-business sentiment creates risks and challenges for business leaders to work with the public sector creating reduced engagement and fractious dynamic​

6

Jobs growing in West, poverty concentrating in East leading to increased commute times and barriers to quality employment

POST-PANDEMIC DYNAMICS​

The city can no longer take its growth for granted. ​

Challenges​

  1. Population decline for first time in 40 years​

  2. Tax/value proposition has eroded, with 32% business tax increase since 2019​

  3. Increased office vacancies, reduced presence of employees and visitors in subdistrict; employee foot traffic is down 36% across the Central City, with Downtown, Old Town and Lloyd most impacted.​

  4. Growing concerns of crime and untreated mental health and addiction crises​

  5. Investment and employment in neighborhood commercial districts declined; just 67% of small business establishments across the City remained stable throughout the pandemic.​

Bright Spots​

  1. Subdistricts with a more balanced mix of residential to employment uses fared better and were more resilient coming out of the pandemic.​

  2. In some districts, home businesses flourished, creating opportunities.​

  3. Notable correlation between district capacity and business health ​

  4. Green cities industry retained 97% of jobs throughout the pandemic​

  5. Events and travel are bringing people back to the Central City​

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